Get it while you can
India and China
Rapid economic growth in India and China has dramatically inflated demand for energy – and, since the vast majority of the power generated in each country is from coal, oil and gas, carbon emissions have followed suit.
China’s GDP doubled from a little more than US$500 billion in 1995 to around US$1.1 trillion in 2005, and is expected to double again in the next ten years. While the country’s consumption of energy per dollar of GDP has fallen, indicating increased efficiency, the doubling of its GDP has seen carbon emissions rise from around 800 million metric tonnes in 1995 to more than 1.2 billion metric tonnes in 2005. Against the projected further doubling of GDP by 2015 is a predicted 50 per cent rise in emissions.
China is now the world’s second-largest consumer of energy and, concomitantly, the second-highest emitter of greenhouse gases, behind the US. Nevertheless, because of its large population (1.3 billion in 2003), its annual per capita emissions of 2.7 metric tonnes are still well below the global average, and just one-ninth that of the US. China, on the other hand, has a lot of growing still to do – 150 million of its people are still poor.
India’s GDP has also doubled, from more than US$320 billion in 1994 to almost US$690 billion in 2004. Similarly, its carbon emissions have increased from 190 million metric tonnes in 1994 to 251 million metric tonnes in 2001. It too has per-capita carbon emissions below the international average, at 1.2 metric tonnes a year. And India also has huge scope for growth – 28.6 per cent of its population, some 300 million people, live below the poverty line.
Neither India nor China are Kyoto protocol ‘annex 1’ countries, which means they are not obliged to make cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions. In each case, their per-capita annual emissions are still low, but clearly if every person in India or China were to pollute to the same extent as a US or even European citizen, any chance of taming climate change would be lost.
Current patterns of energy consumption give little cause for hope. Both countries are heavily dependent on fossil fuels. China, according to popular climate change folklore, is building coal-fired power-stations at a rate of one per week.
China is now the world’s second-largest consumer of energy and, concomitantly, the second-highest emitter of greenhouse gases, behind the US. Nevertheless, because of its large population (1.3 billion in 2003), its annual per capita emissions of 2.7 metric tonnes are still well below the global average, and just one-ninth that of the US. China, on the other hand, has a lot of growing still to do – 150 million of its people are still poor.
India’s GDP has also doubled, from more than US$320 billion in 1994 to almost US$690 billion in 2004. Similarly, its carbon emissions have increased from 190 million metric tonnes in 1994 to 251 million metric tonnes in 2001. It too has per-capita carbon emissions below the international average, at 1.2 metric tonnes a year. And India also has huge scope for growth – 28.6 per cent of its population, some 300 million people, live below the poverty line.
Neither India nor China are Kyoto protocol ‘annex 1’ countries, which means they are not obliged to make cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions. In each case, their per-capita annual emissions are still low, but clearly if every person in India or China were to pollute to the same extent as a US or even European citizen, any chance of taming climate change would be lost.
Current patterns of energy consumption give little cause for hope. Both countries are heavily dependent on fossil fuels. China, according to popular climate change folklore, is building coal-fired power-stations at a rate of one per week.
Rays of hope
There are, however, some positive signs. In the past two decades, by employing measures to increase energy efficiency, China has reduced its expected energy use by a carbon equivalent of 250 million tonnes. Beijing has recently begun to deploy ‘energy police’ in an attempt to cut excessive lighting and heating in commercial premises. The Chinese government has passed laws allowing energy from renewable sources to be sold into the grid at a higher tariff and encouraging property developers to build more energy-efficient housing and offices. It has also famously introduced a tax on disposable items, such as wooden chopsticks.
China will soon be home to the world’s largest ‘ecocity’
Dongtan, situated on a coastal plain close to Shanghai, will house 50,000 people by 2010 and half a million by 2050. Its buildings will be energy efficient and designed to havea low environmental impact. All its transport and residential and commercial properties will be powered by wind, sunlight, or other renewable energy sources. More modest schemes are also in evidence in India.
On the island of Sagar in the Ganges delta, for instance, the West Bengal Renewable Energy Development Agency has built a network of solar power plants connected to a localised grid system that provides energy to communities between 6pm and midnight. Bringing power to the predominantly poor communities on Sagar has revolutionised life there, enabling small businesses to operate in the evenings and adults to study – boosting literacy rates.
But these are rays of hope in an otherwise gloomy picture. Despite the high levels of economic growth in India and China, they are still home to almost half of the world’s poor people. As the New Economics Foundation recently revealed, for every US$100 increase in GDP, only US$0.60 goes to poor people, making growth a hugely inefficient means of tackling poverty.
On the island of Sagar in the Ganges delta, for instance, the West Bengal Renewable Energy Development Agency has built a network of solar power plants connected to a localised grid system that provides energy to communities between 6pm and midnight. Bringing power to the predominantly poor communities on Sagar has revolutionised life there, enabling small businesses to operate in the evenings and adults to study – boosting literacy rates.
But these are rays of hope in an otherwise gloomy picture. Despite the high levels of economic growth in India and China, they are still home to almost half of the world’s poor people. As the New Economics Foundation recently revealed, for every US$100 increase in GDP, only US$0.60 goes to poor people, making growth a hugely inefficient means of tackling poverty.
The downside of development
Growth, when it is powered by coal, oil and gas – which seems inevitable given that both countries are suffering a power deficit – also leads to increased carbon emissions. Both countries are likely to experience climatic changes.
Projections for India show increased rainfall of between 10 and 30 per cent in the centre of the country and a rise in average peak temperatures of 3-4°C by the end of the century. Among other things, these factors will increase the number of months malaria can be transmitted by mosquitoes, especially in the north of the country.
Projections for India show increased rainfall of between 10 and 30 per cent in the centre of the country and a rise in average peak temperatures of 3-4°C by the end of the century. Among other things, these factors will increase the number of months malaria can be transmitted by mosquitoes, especially in the north of the country.
Once again, it is poor rural communities – still sizeable in both countries – that will be at the sharp end
Unchecked increases in emissions are not in their interests. And, as is the case for the rural poor in Africa, large-scale power generation – including India’s much-heralded, US-endorsed nuclear programme – may not be the answer to their energy needs. It is likely to be hugely costly and will rely on a grid system to reach remote communities.
As the example of Sagar illustrates, poor communities without power can be transformed with modest and, most critically, renewable sources of energy. This is a win-win scenario. It means communities are able to leap forward because they have power, but do not shoot themselves in the foot because that power causes further emissions that ultimately undermine their development through climate
change.
The situation in India and China further underlines the importance of leadership in rich, industrialised countries that are still big emitters and bear the historical responsibility for the unsustainable level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. There is a clear role for the UK, Europe and individual states within the US – in lieu of the US government signing up to Kyoto – to lead by example and illustrate willingness to cut emissions and invest in renewable energy so that China, India and other larger developing countries have the confidence to do the same.
As the example of Sagar illustrates, poor communities without power can be transformed with modest and, most critically, renewable sources of energy. This is a win-win scenario. It means communities are able to leap forward because they have power, but do not shoot themselves in the foot because that power causes further emissions that ultimately undermine their development through climate
change.
The situation in India and China further underlines the importance of leadership in rich, industrialised countries that are still big emitters and bear the historical responsibility for the unsustainable level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. There is a clear role for the UK, Europe and individual states within the US – in lieu of the US government signing up to Kyoto – to lead by example and illustrate willingness to cut emissions and invest in renewable energy so that China, India and other larger developing countries have the confidence to do the same.
 |
|
|
Terms & Conditions © Christian Aid 2007